09/08/2008 - Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie Matt Forte rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries and found the end zone, while also catching three balls for 18 yards, as the Chicago Bears christened Indianapolis' brand new Lucas Oil Stadium with a 29-13 victory over the Colts in a rematch of Super Bowl 41.
Kyle Orton threw for 150 yards on 13-of-21 passing for the Bears (1-0). Jason McKie had two rushes for five yards and scored a touchdown for Chicago, which finished last season at 7-9. Brian Urlacher had eight tackles in the win, while Lance Briggs recovered a fumble for a TD.
Peyton Manning, seeing his first action of the season after undergoing surgery in mid-July to remove an inflamed bursa sac in his left knee, hit on 30 of his 49 passes for 257 yards and a TD for the Colts (0-1). Joseph Addai gained 44 yards on 12 carries before leaving with a head injury in the fourth quarter. Reggie Wayne caught 10 passes for 86 yards and a TD for Indy, which finished last season 13-3, but lost 28-24 to the Chargers in the Divisional playoffs. Marvin Harrison had eight grabs for 76 yards, moving him into fourth place on the all-time yards list (14,020).
After the Colts held the Bears to a three-and-out on their first possession of the third quarter, Indy got the ball back at its own 48. Manning hit Wayne on four of seven plays on the drive, totaling 36 yards, including a six- yard touchdown. The score pulled the Colts within 15-13 with 9:22 left in the third.
After a Bears punt, the Colts got the ball back on their own 16. Manning tossed an incomplete pass on first down, but then found Harrison on 2nd- and-10. Charles Tillman hit the receiver about five yards from the line of scrimmage and jarred the ball loose before Briggs scooped it up and ran it into the end zone for a 22-13 Chicago lead with 1:52 showing on the clock. Colts head coach Tony Dungy challenged the ruling on the field, but the call stood.
Down by nine points and facing a 4th-and-1 at midfield with 13:47 remaining in regulation, the Colts decided to go for it. Dominic Rhodes got the handoff and attempted to go up the middle, though Adewale Ogunleye and Briggs plugged the hole stopping Rhodes in the backfield for a turnover on downs.
Chicago took over at the Indy 48 and ran five plays before a 26-yard pass to Desmond Clark landed the team on the goalline. Two plays later, McKie ran up the middle to pay dirt for a 29-13 lead with 9:01 left to play.
The Colts got the ball back at their own 14 and proceeded to drive all the way to the Bears' 33-yard line in about 4 1/2 minutes. There, the club was faced with a 4th-and-7, which the team decided to go for. Manning's pass fell incomplete, which gave the ball, and essentially the game, to the Bears.
"That's the way you want to start off a football season," Chicago head coach Lovie Smith said. "Going into the game we wanted to establish a run game."
After neither team could muster any points on their respective opening drives, Adam Vinatieri broke the scoreless tie with a 39-yard field goal just past the six-minute mark of the first quarter.
Chicago answered right back on its ensuing possession less than a minute later. With the ball on the Bears' 46-yard line, Forte opened the drive by rushing for four yards, Orton then tossed an incomplete pass before Forte broke a 50-yard run for a touchdown. The play gave the Bears a 7-3 lead they would take into the second stanza.
"When they had their chance to make plays, they made them and got touchdowns," Dungy said. "That was the difference."
Manning drove his Colts from Indy's 18-yard line all the way to the Chicago 16, a series that was highlighted by a 20-yard pass to Anthony Gonzalez. The nine-play drive was capped by a Vinatieri 34-yard kick barely inside of the right goal post to make it 7-6.
Robbie Gould countered with a 41-yarder on Chicago's next possession, and as Indianapolis got the ball back, Manning was sacked at the two-yard line. On 2nd-and-20, Ogunleye tackled Addai in the end zone for a safety. Dungy challenged the play, but the call stood making it 12-6 with 4:05 left in the first half.
"It was close, I don't think they could have overturned either one of them," Dungy said.
Gould added a 25-yarder as time expired to give the Bears a 15-6 lead heading into the intermission.
Game Notes
The Colts' Dallas Clark left the game in the first quarter with a right knee injury...The Bears have 50 Kickoff Weekend victories, which is the most by any team...The Colts had won four straight Kickoff Weekends prior to Sunday's setback...Wayne has caught a TD pass in his last three games vs. Chicago.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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